The push towards Net Zero and decarbonisation of the energy system is already marching forward as action on climate change and greenhouse emissions step up, but how do we ensure that this new grid remains resilient as it changes? And how do we make sure that these future projections consider the increased risk from the shifts in weather that come with climate change?

On the 10th of March, the RMetS Energy Insight series kicked off. This insight event assembled academics and professionals from the energy sector to discuss the questions above, and outline some of the ways in which we can assess resilience, help plan the future grid to account for Net Zero demands, and incorporate changes in weather and climate into these future scenarios. Issues relating to increased dependence on weather for our electricity generation, the future electrification of areas like heating and transport adding to the demand, and the changes to hazards linked to climate change were all up for discussion, with the 4 speakers discussing work they had been involved with before a Q&A session. The recording is available now to watch on the RMetS youtube channel. 

How can we produce and assess future resilience strategies?

To start with, Colin Manning from Newcastle University discussed some of the work him and his team had been doing on helping to produce and assess climate resilience strategies. This included an overview of some of the different methods and data that can be used to assess potential changes to the risk faced by the electricity network. Using the UK Climate Projections, high resolution datasets produced by the Met Office specifically designed for groups to use when assessing future climate and the uncertainty in future projections, Colin spoke about how they could identify occurrences of strong wind events in the dataset, and then calculate an estimated number of faults from a statistical model based on historical data. This output can then be used to aid decision making, either by assessing the cost-benefit of potential resilience strategies, or by quantifying the expected robustness of the network.

How do we assess the risks of climate change?

We followed with Dr Daniel Donaldson from the University of Birmingham, who presented work that is helping form the currently underway 4th Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA4) report, outlining the different risks that climate change is bringing, and how reporting of future climate adaptation is progressing. Daniel outlined how the energy system has changed historically, from gas booms to current plans for increased electrification and jumps in storage and weather-dependant generation, with mandated reporting from energy sector groups on their future plans to cope with climate change.

He then talked us through how the CCRA reports identify and group different risks, collecting knowledge through literature reviews, calls for evidence, and workshops with stakeholders. He gave a great example of the changing of the specific risk of wildfires to infrastructure, based on the work his team had been doing at Birmingham. 

How does this all work in practice?

Dr Gruffudd Edwards then followed with another real-world example of how this is put into practice through his consultancy work at TNEI. He explained the concept of using fragility curves for high impact, low probability events, which give a probability of an event (in this case, failure) based on a specific condition (for example, maximum wind speed).  He explained how these can be used for simulating probabilities of future failures through using methods such as Monte Carlo simulations with time series of weather variables. He also explained their potential uses for calculating accumulation effects such as wear and aging, which themselves make failure more likely. In particular, he spoke about how using a binary state for energy systems (working or not working) doesn’t account for how the state system may change how it responds to further future weather events and so needs to be accounted for with fragilities curves that can change with time.

Combining it all, how do we get from Climate Science to Energy Resilience?

Finally, we heard from Dr James Fallon at the UK Met Office, who outlined the approach that they were taking in helping turn climate data into energy resilience metrics that can be used by the industry. In his talk, he spoke through the different datasets available to them, with different temporal and spatial resolutions, which can help identify different hazards. For example, flash flooding from intense convective rainfall requires data at shorter time steps and on a smaller spatial scale, whereas impacts from North Atlantic weather patterns can be accounted for just as well at a coarser resolution. He also spoke about the different ways of approaching the questions, whether it is better to identify a hazard and assess the changes to the frequency of those, or better to identify an impact metric and work backwards to identify the hazard that causes that.

We were lucky to be joined by both Professor Sean Wilkinson and Dr Paula Gonzelez, who had also worked on projects with Dr Manning and Dr Fallon, alongside our speakers for the Q&A, adding their expertise. There were several questions on a wide range of topics, including discussions on verification and monitoring of both energy and weather data, what different impacts we might see across different parts of the UK, and even a question on how AI may help with future resilience assessments. 

The next Energy Insight Event

This all leads neatly into our second Energy Insight talk this year, which is on 23rd April at 2pm, where we will be looking back in time, rather than forward, and hearing how the energy sector has responded to past weather events, and what lessons have been learned for the next time. We have talks from Dr Laiz Souto (University of Bath), Dr Anouk Honore (Oxford Institute for Energy Studies), and Dr Claire Turle and Dr Gwen Palmer (Frazer-Nash Consultancy). 

It promises to be another great event, registration is FREE TO ALL, and you can sign up here.