COP31 Day 3: World leaders gather as new science highlights the urgency of climate action (11 November 2026)
Aminat.Olasunk…
The arrival of world leaders gathering in Antalya today for the first day of the COP31 Leaders’ Summit also coincides with the publication of significant new scientific evidence showing just how much remains to be done.
Global Carbon Budget 2026: Encouraging signs, but emissions remain too high
The latest Global Carbon Budget projects that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels will fall by approximately 0.4% in 2026. This reflects the growing contribution of renewable energy and electrification, alongside reduced oil consumption following the disruption to oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz.
However, the wider picture remains concerning. When emissions from land-use change, including deforestation, are included, total global CO₂ emissions are projected to increase to 43.3 billion tonnes in 2026.
The report also estimates that the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting global warming to 1.5°C is approximately 150 billion tonnes of CO₂, equivalent to less than four years of emissions at current rates.
The findings reinforce a fundamental scientific principle: global temperatures will continue to rise as long as human activities continue adding CO₂ to the atmosphere by burning fossil fuels. Stabilising global temperatures ultimately requires reaching net-zero CO₂ emissions.
Zero Waste: A climate issue, not simply a waste issue
Today’s COP31 Presidency theme of Zero Waste highlights the important contribution that reducing waste and using resources more efficiently can make to climate action.
Waste generates greenhouse gas emissions throughout the life cycle of products, from extracting raw materials and manufacturing to transportation and disposal.
Food waste is a particularly significant example. According to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), food loss and waste account for approximately 8–10% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Reducing food waste can therefore deliver multiple benefits: lowering emissions, reducing pressure on land and water resources, improving food security and limiting methane emissions from decomposing organic material.
The wider transition towards a circular economy, i.e. designing products to last longer, reusing materials and reducing unnecessary consumption, offers further opportunities to reduce emissions.
UNEP’s Global Waste Management Outlook projects that municipal solid waste could increase from 2.1 billion tonnes in 2023 to 3.8 billion tonnes by 2050 without significant changes. Zero Waste is therefore not simply about better recycling. It is about changing how we produce, consume and manage resources.
Does the attendance of world leaders matter?
The COP31 Leaders’ Summit takes place on 11–12 November, bringing heads of state and government together to set out national priorities and demonstrate political commitment to international climate cooperation.
The UK Prime Minister is expected to attend tomorrow, making the UK the only G7 country represented by its head of government at this year’s summit.
The absence of other G7 leaders raises questions about the political priority being given to international climate action, although their governments remain involved through ministers and negotiating delegations.
High-level political engagement can help unlock difficult negotiations, strengthen international partnerships and mobilise investment.
However, attendance and statements alone are not measures of success. What matters is whether political commitments translate into credible policies, investment and measurable emissions reductions.
The importance of independent science
The latest Global Carbon Budget illustrates the importance of independent, authoritative science informing the discussions and decisions.
Scientific evidence enables governments and the public to understand whether the world is making genuine progress, where risks are increasing and what action is required.
As world leaders gather in Antalya, the message from the science is clear: the pace and scale of emissions reductions remain insufficient. COP31, like other COPs, will be judged not simply by the commitments made, but by the action that follows.
Throughout COP31, RMetS will share insights from the conference and highlight the role of weather and climate science in supporting a more resilient future.
