The 30th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP30) is hosted by Brazil in the city of Belém. This landmark COP arrives at a moment of heightened urgency — climate science, global geopolitics, socio-economic vulnerability and ecosystems are all signalling that the next few years are decisive.

Significance of COP30 

COP30 marks three decades of UNFCCC negotiations and comes ten years after the landmark Paris Agreement (COP21 in 2015) offering a moment to reflect on what has been achieved and what remains to be done.

This COP takes place in Brazil, in the Amazon region, symbolically and practically linking climate negotiations to forests, biodiversity, indigenous rights, and nature-based solutions. Belém places global climate action squarely in the context of one of the world’s most critical ecosystems. The host country’s agenda emphasises adaptation, resilience, forests, sustainable supply-chains and biodiversity protection which reflects the reality that mitigation alone is no longer enough.

Looking back: the Paris Agreement, progress and the journey so far

Ten years ago, in December 2015, nearly 200 nations met in Paris (COP21) and adopted the Paris Agreement which was a historic moment in climate diplomacy. The accord committed countries to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 °C.” It introduced a framework of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), a five-year review cycle, and a recognition of adaptation, finance and equity.

There have been some notable highlights since 2015:

• Clean energy deployment has accelerated, cost curves of renewables and storage have improved, giving hope for decarbonisation.
• More governments, cities and corporations have adopted net-zero targets; in many places the climate agenda has become mainstream.
• The narrative around climate action has shifted: from awareness and promises to implementation and accountability-oriented discussion.

However, the picture is also sobering:

• According to a UNFCCC review: “the world is not on track to meet the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement”.
• Many countries have failed to submit updated, ambition-raising NDCs on time. 
  Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, due to human induced climate change.

So, the decade since Paris has seen meaningful progress, but not nearly enough to guarantee that the 1.5 °C goal remains feasible — and COP30 will need to focus less on pledges and more on robust, tangible implementation.

What to expect from COP30

Against that backdrop, what might COP30 deliver, and what is especially on the table given the Brazilian context?

Key themes and expectations:

• COP30 is scheduled for 10–21 November 2025 in Belém, Brazil.
• The host has framed an ambitious agenda: forests, oceans, biodiversity; energy, industry, transport; agriculture and food systems; cities, infrastructure and water; human and social development; and cross-cutting issues.
• Brazil’s presidency emphasises adaptation and resilience in a world already facing climate disasters. This includes restoring mangroves, climate-smart agriculture, early warning systems etc.
• There is attention on scaling up climate finance. One landmark aim is mobilising many billions – for example, a roadmap to raise US$1.3 trillion by 2030 for developing countries.
• Expect emphasis on nature-based solutions and biodiversity protection, leveraging the Amazon as both symbol and substance.

Breaking with the norm from recent COPs, the two-day world leaders’ summit was a few days before COP30 begins from Thursday 6th November. Removing it from the first two days of proceedings may leave more time for negotiations to progress without the distraction of various world leaders and figureheads such as Sir Keir Starmer and Prince William.

What outcomes might we see?

At COP30, feasible outcomes could include:

• Updated NDCs or clear pathways for the next cycle of ambition especially in countries that are lagging.
• Clear mechanisms or finance vehicles to translate adaptation/resilience pledges into investment and infrastructure notably with nature-based dimensions.
• Enhanced policy linkage between mitigation and adaptation: e.g. forest conservation counting toward both carbon and biodiversity goals.
• A stronger global signal: that climate diplomacy is shifting from debating targets to delivering solutions, especially in frontline regions like the Amazon and the Global South.
• Possibly binding or semi-binding mechanisms around implementation, transparency, and linking finance flows.

Why is the fact that COP30 is in Brazil significant?

• Hosting in the Amazon region visually underscores that climate change is not a future threat, it is here and now and ecosystems like the Amazon are both victims and allies of climate action.
• Brazil brings both a forest-rich context and an ‘Emerging Market’ perspective: it can help shift the narrative from a developed-vs-developing dichotomy to one of global co-responsibility, especially for nature-rich countries.
• The venue may help elevate issues of justice, indigenous rights, ecosystem protection and adaptation in developing regions rather than purely industrial decarbonisation alone.