The Royal Meteorological Society held its inaugural “Energy Insights” event on 27 February 2024. This free webinar, chaired by Ben Hutchins (University of Reading and RMetS Science Engagement Fellow for Energy), focused on the resilience of the UK power system to both climate change and extremes. The event attracted over 100 attendees from across the energy sector.

The event began with Hannah Bloomfield (Newcastle University) providing an introduction to why climate change matters for the energy sector. She was followed by Emily Wallace (UK Met Office), who outlined the reasons why understanding the risks related to extreme weather is important for the energy sector.

The second half of the event included two speakers from industry: Ben Sloman (National Energy System Operator/NESO) and Will Hodder (EDF R&D), who provided examples of how weather and climate information is used for future planning in their respective organisations. Ben gave an overview of how the energy system operator plans ahead for the upcoming winter and accounts for both climate change and extreme weather in doing this. Finally, Will provided context for how this information is used in industry, specifically focusing on risks to nuclear assets. 

Watch the event recording on our YouTube

Why does climate change matter for the energy sector?

Hannah Bloomfield opened the event by providing an overview of how the climate is changing and how this might impact energy systems, for example:

By changing demand patterns (due to warmer temperatures);By reducing the efficiency of thermal plant operation;And by changing the availability of different renewable resources (e.g., wind, solar, hydropower).

Hannah went on to explain that, while changes to average wind speed will affect the availability of renewable resources by 2050, changes to the power system itself are more impactful at this time frame. However, once a route to Net-Zero is chosen, the impacts of climate change play an important role. She outlined that there is much more certainty in the signal for changes in mean temperatures compared to changes in wind speed, as the latter is more affected by annual to decadal climate variability. She finished by emphasising that one of the main challenges in energy system modelling is the uncertainty in each of the stages of the modelling process (e.g., there is not only uncertainty in climate data, but also in the energy models).

Why does extreme weather matter for the energy sector?

Emily Wallace followed Hannah’s talk and outlined the risks associated with extreme weather, how these might be changing, and why this matters for the energy sector.

Emily began her talk by highlighting the UK’s clean energy action plan, to set the scene for the direction in which the UK power system is heading. She highlighted that risk from extreme weather is changing because of a) new operations and infrastructure needed in the energy transition, and b) changes to extreme weather from climate change. She outlined the following hazards which are likely to cause resilience challenges, both now and as the power system transitions:

Extreme rainfall – which can cut off assets and poses health and safety risks for those maintaining the network.Windstorms – which can also damage assets and cause large fluctuations in wind generation.Heatwaves – which pose health and safety risks, reduce the efficiency of the transmission network, and are likely to become periods of high electricity demand as the use of air conditioning increases.Coastal hazards – which damage offshore assets, cables, and coastal substations.New compound hazards – which includes ‘dunkelflaute’ events (extended periods of cold, still, conditions) and breezy, sunny bank holidays.

Emily went through and outlined recent case studies of such events, identifying whether or not the extremes were exacerbated by climate change (for more information, watch the YouTube recording). She stressed that risks to the energy sector from weather and climate extremes are increasing and new risks are emerging, with climate change, climate variability and the energy transition all playing a role in creating these risks. She finished her talk by highlighting the important role meteorologists and energy specialists play in mitigating these risks.
 

How is information related to climate change and extremes used by those operating energy systems?

Ben Sloman began his talk by explaining the duties of the National Energy System Operator (NESO), specifically:

Net Zero – enabling the government to deliver on its legally binding emissions targets.Efficiency & Economy – ensuring efficient, coordinated, and economical systems for electricity and gas.Security of Supply – ensuring a secure supply of electricity for all current and future consumers of electricity and gas.

Ben then went on to outline how the energy landscape is changing, and has changed, from predominantly thermally-generated electricity of the past to the complex, interconnected power system of the future.

Ben outlined the duties of the Modelling and Insights team at NESO, specifically feeding into the production of the winter and summer outlooks, which provide estimates of the security of electricity supply for the season ahead. He also discussed how the Net Zero Adequacy Modelling team have researched how historic weather might have impacted the future power system, while testing the sensitivity of flexible resources like storage and interconnectors.

Ben explained the main extreme weather risks considered by NESO, specifically:

The impact of prolonged still and cold weather (‘dunkelflaute’) on security of electricity supply.Managing gas supplies during prolonged cold snaps in winter.Operating the power system during periods of high wind and mild temperatures in the summer, where high renewable supply is coupled with low electricity demand.

He finished by introducing a Network Innovation Allowance project in collaboration with the Met Office, which looks into: “Incorporating the impact of climate change into power system modelling”.
 

How is information relating to climate change and extremes used by those in industry?

Will Hodder first introduced the responsibilities of EDF and the EDF Group, which is to operate all active UK and French nuclear power stations. He explained that EDF needs to understand the impacts of climate change and extreme weather to ensure nuclear power plants (NPPs) are safe and resilient to rare extreme events. He outlined specific cases of where climate change and extreme weather must be taken into account for NPPs:

Complying with regulation – e.g., specific safety cases such as whether an NPP can withstand a 1 in 10,000-year storm.Ensuring safe operation of equipment – e.g., HVAC, flood barriers and drainage, and cooling water/intakes.Ensuring the safety of people working at NPPs – e.g., those working outside, particularly on new development sites like Hinkley Point C.

He then explained how licensees of EDF Research care about many natural hazards affected by climate change, not only meteorological, but also hydrological (i.e. flooding), biological (i.e. ecosystems), and geological (i.e. natural hazards).

Will went on to explain the methodology for assessing extreme air temperature and heat wave risks to NPP cooling systems, involving risk assessments for both present and future climate and how they use a statistical approach to estimate the potential for extremes beyond observations.

Will finished by summarising how, by quantifying the risk of certain climate hazards, they can ensure both the safe operation of NPPs and the safety of the people who work at these sites, now and into the future.

The session ended with a panel discussion and Q+A session. You can watch the full recording on our YouTube.

Next “Energy Insights” event – Innovative Applications of Weather and Climate Data in the Energy Industry

On 20 March 2025, we are hosting our next Energy Insights webinar, exploring innovative applications of weather and climate data in the energy industry, with speakers from the UK Met Office, Climate X, Newcastle University, and AtkinsRéalis.

If you are interested in attending, you can sign up on the event page.