As COP31 enters its fifth day in Antalya, attention is turning towards the negotiations that will shape the conference’s final outcome. Today’s Presidency theme is Finance and Trade, but discussions are also gathering pace around a possible overarching COP31 agreement, known as the cover decision.

The challenge facing negotiators is how to bring together the different elements of the conference into a coherent package that reflects scientific evidence, supports implementation and commands international agreement.

The emerging COP31 cover decision

Countries are considering whether the cover decision should focus narrowly on formally negotiated outcomes or also recognise initiatives emerging from the wider COP31 Action Agenda. These include the Presidency’s flagship 35 by 35 electrification ambition, which seeks to increase electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35% by 2035.

Other proposals under discussion include strengthening adaptation finance, reaffirming the transition away from fossil fuels, protecting oceans and vulnerable mountain regions, and maintaining the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C temperature goal.

However, differences remain over the scope and purpose of a cover decision. These discussions are expected to continue over the coming days as the Presidency seeks a package capable of securing consensus.

Why the latest science matters

A particularly important question is how the final decision reflects scientific evidence about global warming and the increasing likelihood of temporarily exceeding 1.5°C, referred to as the ‘overshoot’.

UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2026 concludes that, under current policies, global warming could reach approximately 2.8°C this century.

Its analysis indicates that limiting the extent of overshoot and returning temperatures to 1.5°C by 2100 would require global greenhouse gas emissions to fall by approximately 45% by 2035 compared with 2025 levels.

UNEP’s separate Limiting Overshoot report highlights that the higher temperatures rise, and the longer they remain elevated, the greater the risks to people, ecosystems and economies.

These findings reinforce why limiting future warming remains essential, even if the 1.5°C threshold is temporarily exceeded.

Climate finance: Turning commitments into resilience

Today’s Finance and Trade discussions also highlight the gap between the funding needed to adapt to climate change and the resources currently available.

UNEP’s Adaptation Gap Report 2026 estimates that developing countries will need approximately US$305 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to the impacts of climate change.

Negotiators are considering how to strengthen adaptation finance, alongside wider questions about the relationship between climate policies, trade and economic development.

For the Royal Meteorological Society, these discussions reinforce the importance of ensuring that climate finance is guided by reliable weather and climate information.

Climate projections, observations, forecasting, early warning systems and risk assessments are essential for identifying vulnerabilities and directing investment towards effective adaptation.

Why scientific evidence must remain central

Political negotiations inevitably involve different national circumstances, priorities and economic interests. However, scientific evidence provides a common foundation for understanding climate risks, evaluating options and assessing whether collective commitments are sufficient.

Countries may disagree about how to respond to climate change, but those disagreements do not alter the scientific evidence of the risks we face.

Throughout COP31, RMetS will share insights from the conference and highlight the role of weather and climate science in supporting a more resilient future.

View more RMetS updates from COP31.