COP31 begins: Latest climate science highlights the urgency of action (9 November 2026)
nathan.reece@r…
As COP31 gets underway in Antalya, Türkiye, world leaders, scientists, policymakers and civil society are gathering against a backdrop of increasingly stark scientific evidence about the changing global climate.
New reports published ahead of the conference by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Copernicus Climate Change Service and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) underline both the growing risks from climate change and the gap between international commitments and the action required.
What does the latest science tell us?
The WMO State of the Climate Update 2026, published today, confirms that 2026 is on course to be one of the four warmest years on record. Ocean heat and sea levels are at record highs, while a very strong El Niño is expected to contribute further to global temperatures and extreme weather risks into 2027.
Meanwhile, the latest Copernicus Climate Bulletin, published on 5 November, reports that October 2026 was the warmest October on record globally, with temperatures 1.75°C above the estimated pre-industrial average. Copernicus also indicates that 2026 is virtually certain to become the second calendar year to exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
These findings are further evidence of the long-term warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions. Natural climate variability, including El Niño, can temporarily amplify global temperatures, but the underlying warming trend is driven primarily by human activity.
The latest UNEP reports reinforce the scale of the challenge:
- The Emissions Gap Report 2026 shows that existing national climate commitments remain insufficient to deliver the emissions reductions needed to limit future warming.
- The Adaptation Gap Report 2026 highlights the significant shortfall in finance and implementation needed to protect vulnerable communities from growing climate risks.
Together, these reports make clear that reducing emissions and adapting to the changes already underway must progress together.
Why does COP31 matter for the UK?
Climate change is not simply an international issue. It is already changing the UK’s weather, increasing the likelihood and severity of extreme heat and heavy rainfall, with implications for flooding, drought, wildfire, health, infrastructure, agriculture and water security.
This UK perspective is brought into sharp focus by tonight’s BBC Panorama programme, Fire and Floods: Our Extreme Weather, airing at 8pm on BBC One.
Presented by BBC Climate Editor Justin Rowlatt, the programme investigates the impacts of our changing climate on UK weather and asks whether our towns, cities and infrastructure are sufficiently prepared for the conditions we can expect in the future.
It is a timely reminder that decisions being discussed at COP31 have direct relevance to communities across the UK.
COP31 provides an important opportunity to assess progress, strengthen international cooperation and translate scientific evidence into practical commitments.
As the latest reports demonstrate, the science is increasingly clear. The challenge is not simply understanding how our climate is changing, but acting on that knowledge at the scale and pace required.
Throughout COP31, RMetS will share insights from the conference and highlight the role of weather and climate science in supporting a more resilient future.
